城市生态经济系统模型构建与分析

根据城市生态经济系统(UrbanEco-economicSystem,UEES)运行规律和系统调控的目标,建立了UEES指标体系.以宁波市为例,采用偏最小二乘算法构建了UEES模型.本例中,模型的Q2cum值为0·996,表明其具有较好的稳定性和预测能力.计算结果表明,到2007年、2012年和2020年,宁波市国内生产总值将分别达到2588×108元、3250×108元、5261×108元;万元国内生产总值能耗、城市化水平与产业结构是影响经济规模扩大的主要因素,万元工业产值废水排放量和SO2排放量与经济规模呈显著的负相关关系.在此基础上,提出了宁波生态市建设过程中经济发展的若干建议.     

天津表层土壤PAHs分子标志物参数的空间特征

以天津地区为例,在选取分子标志物的基础上,应用地统计学方法探讨了多种多环芳烃(PAHs)分子标志物的空间特征,并在此基础上探讨污染源空间分布状况.结果表明,分子标志物的计算和空间分布的模拟,可以帮助识别复杂情况下污染来源的分布情况.通过对天津地区表层土壤PAHs 6种分子标志物参数空间分布的研究,发现天津地区主要的PAHs污染源是煤燃烧源,在天津绝大部分地区都有分布.而石油源和交通污染源主要分布在中部和滨海地区,2 种污染源有一定的重叠.在远郊县的边界地区,有一定的木柴污染源分布.     

汾河水库水源河着生硅藻群落的DCCA研究

对汾河水库3条主要水源河的11个样点95个着生硅藻进行DCCA排序,这11个样点可分为4组,分别指示水质属于-中污带、-中污带、寡污带和清洁带,DCCA第一轴可反映水体污染程度,第二轴反映河流的流速.DCCA排序表明,COD与水体污染状况关系最大.物种多样性研究采用9个多样性指数,各多样性指数随水体污染等级加大而呈现下降的趋势.     

分子连接性指数法预测多氯联苯醚(PCDEs)的理化性质

通过计算多氯联苯醚(PCDEs)所有209种可能分子结构的分子连接性指数,以106种PCDEs理化性质的实验值为建模样本,建立并优选了PCDEs的饱和蒸气压(PO_L)、水溶解度(S_w)和正辛醇/水分配系数(K_ow)的定量结构--性质相关(QSPR)方程,检验结果表明方程相关性显著.在此基础上对其余103种文献中尚未报道实验值的PCDEs的上述参数进行了预测.利用得到的预测值,进一步给出了另外3种理化性质--亨利常数(H)、空气/水分配系数(K_gw)、空气/正辛醇分配系数(K_go)的计算结果.      

New indicator approaches for effective urban air quality management

Measurements of urban air quality at monitoring stations in developed countries have frequently involved the criteria gaseous pollutants, particulates, hazardous air pollutants, perceived air quality and relevant meteorological conditions. Large numbers of indicators have therefore been established to quantify emissions, concentrations and environmental and human health impacts of each of these groups of substances. To simplify the data for management, several indicators have been grouped together to form urban air quality indices but the weightings of individual variables is contentious. In industrialising and developing countries, data may be limited and traditional air pollutant indicators cannot often be constructed. The emphasis therefore has to be placed on the development of policy-relevant indicators, such as Response Indicators that reflect different policy principles for regulating air pollutant emissions. Indices that quantify the air quality management capabilities and capacities at the city level provide further useful decision-relevant tools. Four sets of indices, namely, 1. air quality measurement capacity, 2. data assessment and availability, 3. emissions estimates, and 4. management enabling capabilities, and a composite index to evaluate air quality management capability, were constructed and applied to 80 cities. The indices revealed that management capability varied widely between the cities. In some of the cities, existing national knowledge on urban air quality could have been more effectively used for management. It was concluded that for effective urban air quality management, a greater emphasis should be given, not just to monitoring and data capture programmes, but to the development of indicators and indices that empower decision-makers to initiate management response strategies. Over-reliance on restricted, predetermined sets of traditional air quality indicators should be avoided.     

Investigation of long-term river water quality variations using different urbanization indices and assessment of common scientific perspectives of urbanization on water quality

This study investigated the water quality variation spanning 30 years (1986–2017) in 16 catchments of Hong Kong against different urbanization indices, namely, built area fraction; population; and product of population and built area fraction. Pearson correlations of three different periods of time (1988–1990, 1998–2000, and 2015–2017) indicated that water quality trends were dependent on the urbanization index. Total solids, nitrite-nitrogen, total phosphorus, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen, and flow rate had significant deteriorative trends (Pearson r > 0.5 and p < 0.05) with population and product of built area and population. Results also interpreted that built area fraction and product of built area and population were the worst and best indices that represented urbanization and/or its impacts, respectively. Mann-Kendall test for the entire 30 year period showed that water quality had improved with time with respect to certain water quality parameters (e.g., dissolved oxygen, ammoniacal nitrogen and total suspended solids). The results portrayed that although the urbanization of catchments had increased with time, the river water quality with respect to many parameters showed signs of improvement and the legislative measures implemented seemed to be effective in controlling pollution.     

鸭绿江上游细鳞鱼的生境现状及资源退化原因分析

细鳞鱼作为名贵的鲑科陆封型冷水性鱼类,属于国家二级保护动物。近年来我国冷水鱼资源急剧下降,有些种类濒临灭绝。本项研究进行了冷水鱼在鸭绿江上游支流生存繁息的生态环境现状调查和监测,为冷水鱼生存环境提供背景值,同时也为冷水鱼类的人工增养殖和保存冷水鱼物种提供环境方面的科学依据。根据测定结果分析,冷水鱼资源退化的直接原因不是冷水水域水质的恶化,而是人类活动的干扰。     

Efficacy of extracting indices from large‐scale acoustic recordings to monitor biodiversity

Passive acoustic monitoring could be a powerful way to assess biodiversity across large spatial and temporal scales. However, extracting meaningful information from recordings can be prohibitively time consuming. Acoustic indices (i.e., a mathematical summary of acoustic energy) offer a relatively rapid method for processing acoustic data and are increasingly used to characterize biological communities. We examined the relationship between acoustic indices and the diversity and abundance of biological sounds in recordings. We reviewed the acoustic‐index literature and found that over 60 indices have been applied to a range of objectives with varying success. We used 36 of the most indicative indices to develop a predictive model of the diversity of animal sounds in recordings. Acoustic data were collected at 43 sites in temperate terrestrial and tropical marine habitats across the continental United States. For terrestrial recordings, random‐forest models with a suite of acoustic indices as covariates predicted Shannon diversity, richness, and total number of biological sounds with high accuracy (R² ≥ 0.94, mean squared error [MSE] ≤170.2). Among the indices assessed, roughness, acoustic activity, and acoustic richness contributed most to the predictive ability of models. Performance of index models was negatively affected by insect, weather, and anthropogenic sounds. For marine recordings, random‐forest models poorly predicted Shannon diversity, richness, and total number of biological sounds (R² ≤ 0.40, MSE ≥ 195). Our results suggest that using a combination of relevant acoustic indices in a flexible model can accurately predict the diversity of biological sounds in temperate terrestrial acoustic recordings. Thus, acoustic approaches could be an important contribution to biodiversity monitoring in some habitats.     

上海市青浦区景观格局的粒度效应分析

以上海市青浦区为研究区域，基于ETM遥感影像数据和GIS技术，采用优势规则栅格聚合方法，对分类的ETM数据进行了粒度变换。以景观格局分析程序Fragstats3．3为分析工具，从景观类型水平和景观水平上研究了景观格局的空间粒度效应。研究结果表明：（1）不同的景观类型、不同的景观特征指数对粒度响应存在差异：居住景观和道路景观是对粒度响应最敏感的两种景观类型；形状指数、聚集度指数、斑块数量指数对粒度响应的敏感程度较高，多样性指数、均匀度指数、景观面积比例指数、分维数对粒度响应的敏感程度较低；此外，还发现优势景观随着粒度增加面积增大，形状规则的景观对粒度响应敏感程度低。（2）景观指数的粒度响应曲线存在尺度转折点，且多出现在40、60、80、120m，其中第一尺度区域多为20～40m或20～60m。第一尺度域是选择适宜粒度的较好取值范围，所以本研究中所用景观类型图进行景观指数计算的适宜粒度范围为30-40m。（3）研究发现由不同指数表征相同的生态现象可能会出现相反的粒度效应，在一定程度上体现了景观指数量化景观格局的局限性。     

A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE PALMER HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index to departures from average temperature and precipitation conditions is examined. A time series of zero index values was calculated and then one monthly temperature or precipitation value was perturbed. The resulting time series shows the effects on the index of one anomalous value. Independent series were calculated for temperature anomalies of plus and minus 1, 3, 5, and 10F and for precipitation anomalies of 25, 50, 75, 125, 150, and 200 percent of normal for each calendar month for Colorado, Indiana, Nevada, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Washington, and Wisconsin. Analysis of the time series showed that the period of time required for the index to reflect actual rather than artificial initial conditions could be more than four years. It was also found that the effects of temperature anomalies are insignificant compared to the effects of precipitation anomalies. In some cases, one anomalous precipitation value could result in established wet or dry spells that last for up to two years. Although not examined in detail, the time series suggest that distributions of index values may be asymmetrical and possibly bimodal.